2019 Outlook: Preparing for the downside, part 2

first_imgJohn Bilton, global head of multi-strategy at JPMAM, says his company has decided to “meaningfully de-risk our multi-asset portfolios – most visibly by reducing stock-bond [balance] to a small underweight for the first time in nine years”. Luca Paolini, chief strategist, Pictet AMThe consensus on credit is downbeat overall, but with pockets of value to be found with careful searching. SSGA’s O’Leary is rather more bullish than most, arguing that fundamentals remain constructive. He adds that the next downturn in the credit cycle does not represent an immediate threat.BlackRock Investment Institute’s (BII) 2019 outlook report also argues that fundamentals are positive, with ample interest coverage. However, the report also points out signs of a late cycle in credit.“Financing costs are on the rise, costs are up and companies at the low end of the investment grade spectrum (BBB-rated) have been issuing more bonds to fund share buybacks and acquisitions,” BII states. “Overall we see limited upside and asymmetric downside as the economy enters into a late cycle phase.”Pictet’s Luca Paolini, chief strategist, is again much more cautious: “Clouds are gathering over the corporate credit market. Valuations are firmly against it, with credit ranked as the most expensive asset class in our valuation model.”He adds a further warning: “Corporate leverage is edging up, bond issuance has been very high, the share of traditionally more short-termist retail investors is growing, and liquidity is low.”Columbia Threadneedle’s deputy CIO Mark Burgess sums up another big fear for fixed income managers: “We continue to be concerned about the levels of debt in the world, particularly sovereign and corporate debt, with net debt to GDP in the likes of China looking increasingly unsustainable.” John Bilton, global head of multi-strategy, JPMAMHe cites a downward shift in the global economy, slowing of earnings growth expected in 2019, and tightening of monetary policy.For fixed income managers, top of mind for 2019 is the US Federal Reserve. Nick Maroutsos, co-head of global bonds at Janus Henderson Investors, says the Fed’s interest rate decisions are the “most important” factor for fixed income this year.“Much of what will occur in bond markets – and the economy – will be influenced by the Fed’s actions,” he says. “While some expect an even more aggressive Fed we believe that, given its history of caution, it will err on the ‘dovish’ side.“The threat of an escalating trade war and broader prospect of slowing global growth are two factors that could necessitate a pause on rising interest rates.”The majority of managers state that fixed income prospects are mediocre at best. At the end of 2018 the European Central Bank followed the Fed’s 2017 action and ended QE, although it will maintain the size of its balance sheet for now. Despite this, asset managers expect a gradual withdrawal of global liquidity will bring fundamental changes to yields and asset valuations.Unigestion’s managers are bearish on all fixed income, stating: “Quantitative easing has been the perfect environment to increase risk and leverage, but as 2018 has started to show, the picture is now changing.”State Street Global Advisors’ (SSGA) Niall O’Leary, global head of fixed income, highlights the extreme spread between the US and German 10-year yields, which towards the end of 2018 was at its widest level since the euro was introduced. He suggests that, although perhaps currently justified, this spread is unlikely to persist indefinitely.InflationAnother pressure point for long-term bond yields is inflation expectations.Fidelity International’s James Bateman, CIO of multi-asset, warns that the market is complacent about rising prices, with too many people believing central bank independence has tamed inflation for good.“While our base case is for a moderate increase, the biggest problems often go unnoticed until it’s too late,” Bateman says. “Higher-than-expected inflation is one of those potential problems.”Creditcenter_img Global growth will be slower in 2019, volatility will remain on a par with 2018 but the risk of recession is low – according to some of Europe’s leading asset managers.IPE has analysed investment outlooks from a number of major firms, including JP Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM), Janus Henderson, Fidelity, and Pictet.The first part – summarising the outlook for equity markets around the world – is available here.The year ahead will bring challenges for managers of government bonds, credit and other fixed income asset classes, but it’s not all about quantitative easing (QE).last_img read more

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DOH: Not all COVID cases will be handled by WVMC

first_imgJuanico said government hospitals in otherprovinces or cities in the region lacked the facilities to make them capable ofhandling COVID-19 patients with severe symptoms. As of this writing, Region 6 has 16 COVID-19cases spread out in Bacolod City, Iloilo City, Capiz, Iloilo province, andAklan. WVMC has been designated as regional COVID-19dedicated hospital. The doctors also urged the provincialgovernment of Iloilo to strictly enforce “border control” and observe“stringent infection measures” to contain the spread of COVID-19. Medical societies warned that the transfer toWVMC of all COVID-19 cases from various parts of the region could furtherspread the virus causing it. * prohibit COVID-19 patients from beingadmitted in a nonCOVID-19 dedicated hospital whether private or government (andimpose this rule regardless of the patient’s financial status or standing insociety) * use COVID-19 test kits prudently and ensurethat only those who fit the criteria are tested * provide frontliners and healthcare workerswith personal protective equipment The medical societies had argued it would bewiser if other provinces in the region – Antique, Aklan, Capiz, Guimaras,Negros Occidental – identify their respective COVID-19-dedicated healthfacility. A surge in COVID-19 cases could strain thehealthcare system of this city and Iloilo province, they warned. ILOILO City – Not all coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) cases in Western Visayas would be lumped at the Western VisayasMedical Center (WVMC) in Mandurriao district, the Department of Health (DOH)assured various medical societies here. But according to Dr. Mary Jane Juanico, focalperson for COVID-19 of DOH Region 6, WVMC’s acceptance of COVID-19 cases fromother provinces would be on a “case to case basis.” According to the World Health Organization(WHO), the most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and drycough.  Some patients mayhave aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. center_img * capacitate provincial hospitals so they willnot have to refer their patients to WVMC According to Juanico, WVMC is the only Level 3hospital in Panay and Guimaras islands which means it has far betterfacilities. So why designate WVMC as regional COVID-19dedicated hospital? The medical societies that expressed concernwere the Iloilo Medical Society, Philippine College of Surgeons Panay Chapter,Philippine Society of General Surgeons Panay Chapter, Philippine College ofPhysicians Western Visayas Chapter, Philippine Society of AnesthesiologistsIloilo Panay Chapter, Philippine Pediatric Society Western Visayas Chapter, andPhilippine Obstetrics and Gynecologic Society. Most people (about 80 percent) recover fromthe disease without needing special treatment, according to WHO. Around one outof every six people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and developsdifficulty breathing. These symptoms are usually mild and begingradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don’tfeel unwell. “Not all cases,” Juanico assured the medicalsocieties. They also suggested that all persons underinvestigation – those who show symptoms of COVID-19 but not yet tested or stillwaiting for the results of their test – be considered as positive cases alreadyso that immediate contact tracing could be done and so that these contactscould be isolated. Older people, and those with underlyingmedical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes, are morelikely to develop serious illness./PN The Department of Health has designated Western Visayas Medical Center in Iloilo City as the health facility dedicated to coronavirus disease cases. IAN PAUL CORDERO/PN The medical societies urged DOH-6 to:last_img read more

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9-year-old boy taken into custody for stabbing sister with knife

first_imgAccording to authorities the mother was the one who made the call to 911 after she returned from checking the mail to find the boy stabbing his sister.The victim was transported to a local hospital. She was alert and responsive before being taken to the hospital, authorities say. The Ocala Police Department apprehended a 9-year-old boy on a charge of attempted first-degree murder after he stabbed his 5-year-old sister because he said he wanted her die.Police say the boy stabbed his sister in the back with a kitchen knife on Monday. When asked why he did it, he told detectives that the thought of killing her came to his mind two days ago, according to detectives. The judge ordered secure detention for the child and a psychiatric evaluation.Officials have not disclosed the boy’s name due to his age.last_img read more

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Man receives 55,000 identical letters from student loan company

first_imgAn Ohio man received about 55,000 copies of the same exact letter from College Avenue Student Loans.Dan Cain of Twinsburg told WOIO that he knew there was a problem as soon as the clerk at his post office told him that he had too much mail to walk through the front door with.Cain said there was about 79 trays of letters with about 700 letters in each.In a statement obtained by WOIO, the college loan company said the letter was in regards to Cain’s daughter’s student loan being due /The company blamed the mistake on a computer glitch.last_img

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Warren Backholm Serves as a Page in the Washington State Senator

first_imgFacebook27Tweet0Pin0 Submitted by Sen. Karen FraserTumwater’s Warren Backholm recently served as a page for Sen. Karen Fraser, D-Olympia, in the Washington State Senate.“Warren is very interested in the legislative process already.  I hope this experience serves to further those interests and that he left here having had a positive and educational experience,” Fraser said.Backholm, 15, lives in Tumwater where he is home schooled.  He has an interest in debate, politics, economics and has served as a campaign volunteer.last_img

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Mallard’s Team of the Week — Nelson U18 Selects

first_imgThe Nelson Selects came ever so close to repeat as Provincial B U18 Boy’s Cup Champions Sunday in Penticton. However, anything the could go wrong, went wrong as the Select lost out to Chilliwack in the gold medal final. Still staff and management at Mallard’s Source For Sports want help cure the sting with Team of the Week honours. The squad includes, back row, L-R, assistant coach Chris Richards, Trace Cooke, Andrew Woodward, Michael Hii, Simon Baranyai-Sheppard, Mitch Melanson, Russell Ray, Kevin Lewis, Erik Norberg, Danny Santano, Luke Mori and head coach Keith Williams. Front, Taylor Jorge, Scott Onschak, Carsen Willans, Joren Johnson, Luis Loeschnik and Levi Smith. Missing and Crucial to the success of the team, Graeme Bekker and Garrett Bowman.last_img

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In Search of April Raintree author discusses new book

first_imgShaneen Robinson-DesjarlaisAPTN National NewsIt’s been more than three decades since In Search of April Raintree was published.Beatrice Mosionier’s book was taught in schools and included the suicide of two sisters and her own sexual assault.She discusses her new book.last_img

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Alberta premier ready to talk but wants action at Trans Mountain meeting

first_imgEDMONTON – Alberta Premier Rachel Notley says she will attend a meeting about the Trans Mountain pipeline in good faith and with an open mind, but the bottom line is the expansion project must get built without delay.Notley also says she will bring in legislation next week that would allow her to curtail oil shipments to British Columbia – regardless of the outcome of her Sunday meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and B.C. Premier John Horgan.Such action is expected to cause gas prices and other costs to spike in B.C.Trudeau has called the meeting for Ottawa amid increasing public pressure to resolve the impasse over Kinder Morgan’s pipeline from Edmonton to the port at Burnaby, B.C.The $7.4-billion expansion would triple the amount of oil headed to the coast, which Notley says is critical to ease transportation bottlenecks that are causing Canadian heavy oil to sell at a deep discount.The project already has federal approval, but Kinder Morgan says delay tactics and court challenges by B.C. have put the financial viability of it in jeopardy.last_img read more

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Report Chinese coal mine accident kills 19

first_imgBEIJING — A news agency says 19 miners were killed when a coal mine collapsed in northern China.The official Xinhua News Agency says rescuers are looking for two miners who still are missing following the disaster Saturday in the northern province of Shaanxi.Xinhua says another 66 miners were rescued.Authorities say the number of fatalities in China’s coal mines has fallen sharply over the past decade but the industry still is the world’s deadliest.The Associated Presslast_img

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Morocco North Africas Largest Foreign Direct Investments Recipient In 2013 UN

first_imgGeneva – Morocco has attracted a total of 3.5 billion USD in foreign direct investments in 2013, consolidating its rank as North Africa’s largest FDI recipient at a time capital flow is slowing down, said a UN agency.“Persistent political and social tensions continued to subdue flows to North Africa, where only Morocco registered solid growth of 24% to US$3.5 billion”, says a report of the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), presented in Geneva.The UNCTAD’s “Global Investment trends monitor” notes that ” FDI inflows to Africa rose by 6.8% to an estimated US$ 56.3 billion,” ascribing this to “the strong performance of Southern African countries, including South Africa and Mozambique that experienced record inflows of more than US$10 billion and US$7 billion, respectively, as well as lower levels of divestment in Angola compared to previous years.” It argues that “there are signs that investors are ready to return to the region, with many big cross-border deals targeting Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria’s lackluster performance (US$ 5.5 billion) is the result of foreign TNCs’ retreat from the oil industry.”Worldwide, UNCTAD forecasts that “FDI flows will rise gradually in 2014 and 2015 , to US$ 1.6 trillion and US$ 1.8 trillion respectively, as global economic growth gains momentum which may prompt investors to turn their cash holdings into new investments.”“However, uneven levels of growth, fragility and unpredictability in a number of economies and risks related to the tapering of quantitative easing could dampen the FDI recovery”, the report concludes.last_img read more

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